The videos in Part I introduce the general framework of probability models, multiple discrete or continuous random variables, expectations, conditional distributions, and various powerful tools of general applicability.
The textbook for this subject is Bertsekas, Dimitri, and John Tsitsiklis. Introduction to Probability. 2nd ed. Athena Scientific, 2008. ISBN: 9781886529236.
The authors have made this Selected Summary Material (PDF) available for OCW users.
L = Lecture Content
S = Supplemental Content
SES # & TOPICS | SLIDES |
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Lecture 1: Probability Models and Axioms | |
› View Lecture Videos L01.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L01.2 Sample Space Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Sample Space > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L01.3 Sample Space Examples Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Sample Space Examples > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L01.4 Probability Axioms Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Probability Axioms > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L01.5 Simple Properties of Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Simple Properties of Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 16MB) L01.6 More Properties of Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. More Properties of Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L01.7 A Discrete Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Discrete Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L01.8 A Continuous Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Continuous Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L01.9 Countable Additivity Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Countable Additivity > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L01.10 Interpretations & Uses of Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Interpretations & Uses of Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) |
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Lecture 1 Supplement: Mathematical Background | |
› View Lecture Videos S01.0 Mathematical Background Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Mathematical Background Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 2MB) S01.1 Sets Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Sets > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) S01.2 De Morgan's Laws Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. De Morgan's Laws > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) S01.3 Sequences and their Limits Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Sequences and their Limits > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) S01.4 When Does a Sequence Converge? Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. When Does a Sequence Converge? > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 3MB) S01.5 Infinite Series Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Infinite Series > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) S01.6 The Geometric Series Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Geometric Series > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) S01.7 About the Order of Summation in Series with Multiple Indices Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. About the Order of Summation in Series with Multiple Indices > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) S01.8 Countable and Uncountable Sets Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Countable and Uncountable Sets > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) S01.9 Proof that a Set of Real Numbers is Uncountable Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Proof that a Set of Real Numbers is Uncountable > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) S01.10 Bonferroni's Inequality Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Bonferroni's Inequality > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) |
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Lecture 2: Conditioning and Bayes' Rule | |
› View Lecture Videos L02.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L02.2 Conditional Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L02.3 A Die Roll Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Die Roll Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L02.4 Conditional Probabilities Obey the Same Axioms Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional Probabilities Obey the Same Axioms > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L02.5 A Radar Example and Three Basic Tools Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Radar Example and Three Basic Tools > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13) L02.6 The Multiplication Rule Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Multiplication Rule > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L02.7 Total Probability Theorem Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Total Probability Theorem > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L02.8 Bayes' Rule Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Bayes' Rule > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) |
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Lecture 3: Independence | |
› View Lecture Videos L03.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L03.2 A Coin Tossing Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Coin Tossing Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L03.3 Independence of Two Events Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence of Two Events > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L03.4 Independence of Event Complements Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence of Event Complements > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L03.5 Conditional Independence Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional Independence > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L03.6 Independence Versus Conditional Independence Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence Versus Conditional Independence > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L03.7 Independence of a Collection of Events Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence of a Collection of Events > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L03.8 Independence Versus Pairwise Independence Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence Versus Pairwise Independence > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L03.9 Reliability Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Reliability > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L03.10 The King's Sibling Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The King's Sibling > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) |
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Lecture 4: Counting | |
› View Lecture Videos L04.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L04.2 The Counting Principle Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Counting Principle > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L04.3 Die Roll Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Die Roll Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L04.4 Combinations Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Combinations > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L04.5 Binomial Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Binomial Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L04.6 A Coin Tossing Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Coin Tossing Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 15MB) L04.7 Partitions Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Partitions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L04.8 Each Person Gets An Ace Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Each Person Gets An Ace > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L04.9 Multinomial Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Multinomial Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) |
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Lecture 5: Discrete Random Variables Part I | |
› View Lecture Videos L05.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L05.2 Definition of Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Definition of Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L05.3 Probability Mass Functions Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Probability Mass Functions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 15MB) L05.4 Bernoulli & Indicator Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Bernoulli & Indicator Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L05.5 Uniform Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Uniform Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L05.6 Binomial Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Binomial Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L05.7 Geometric Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Geometric Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L05.8 Expectation Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Expectation > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L05.9 Elementary Properties of Expectation Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Elementary Properties of Expectation > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L05.10 The Expected Value Rule Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Expected Value Rule > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L05.11 Linearity of Expectations Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Linearity of Expectations > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) S05.1 Supplement: Functions Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Supplement: Functions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) |
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Lecture 6: Discrete Random Variables Part II | |
› View Lecture Videos L06.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L06.2 Variance Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Variance > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 16MB) L06.3 The Variance of the Bernoulli & the Uniform Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Variance of the Bernoulli & the Uniform > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L06.4 Conditional PMFs & Expectations Given an Event Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional PMFs & Expectations Given an Event > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L06.5 Total Expectation Theorem Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Total Expectation Theorem > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L06.6 Geometric PMF Memorylessness & Expectation Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Geometric PMF Memorylessness & Expectation > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L06.7 Joint PMFs and the Expected Value Rule Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Joint PMFs and the Expected Value Rule > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L06.8 Linearity of Expectations & the Mean of the Binomial Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Linearity of Expectations & the Mean of the Binomial > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) |
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Lecture 7: Discrete Random Variables Part III | |
› View Lecture Videos L07.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L07.2 Conditional PMFs Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional PMFs > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L07.3 Conditional Expectation & the Total Expectation Theorem Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional Expectation & the Total Expectation Theorem > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L07.4 Independence of Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence of Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L07.5 Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L07.6 Independence & Expectations Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence & Expectations > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L07.7 Independence, Variances & the Binomial Variance Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence, Variances & the Binomial Variance > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L07.8 The Hat Problem Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Hat Problem > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 21MB) S07.1 The Inclusion-Exclusion Formula Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Inclusion-Exclusion Formula > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 18MB) S07.2 The Variance of the Geometric Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Variance of the Geometric > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) S07.3 Independence of Random Variables Versus Independence of Events Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence of Random Variables Versus Independence of Events > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) |
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Lecture 8: Continuous Random Variables Part I | |
› View Lecture Videos L08.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 3MB) L08.2 Probability Density Functions Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Probability Density Functions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L08.3 Uniform & Piecewise Constant PDFs Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Uniform & Piecewise Constant PDFs > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 3MB) L08.4 Means & Variances Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Means & Variances > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L08.5 Mean & Variance of the Uniform Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Mean & Variance of the Uniform > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L08.6 Exponential Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Exponential Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L08.7 Cumulative Distribution Functions Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Cumulative Distribution Functions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 15MB) L08.8 Normal Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Normal Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L08.9 Calculation of Normal Probabilities Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Calculation of Normal Probabilities > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 19MB) |
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Lecture 9: Continuous Random Variables Part II | |
› View Lecture Videos L09.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L09.2 Conditioning A Continuous Random Variable on an Event Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditioning A Continuous Random Variable on an Event > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L09.3 Conditioning Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditioning Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L09.4 Memorylessness of the Exponential PDF Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Memorylessness of the Exponential PDF > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L09.5 Total Probability & Expectation Theorems Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Total Probability & Expectation Theorems > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L09.6 Mixed Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Mixed Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L09.7 Joint PDFs Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Joint PDFs > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L09.8 From The Joint to the Marginal Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. From The Joint to the Marginal > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L09.9 Continuous Analogs of Various Properties Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Continuous Analogs of Various Properties > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 2MB) L09.10 Joint CDFs Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Joint CDFs > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) S09.1 Buffon's Needle & Monte Carlo Simulation Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Buffon's Needle & Monte Carlo Simulation > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 19MB) |
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Lecture 10: Continuous Random Variables Part III | |
› View Lecture Videos L10.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L10.2 Conditional PDFs Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional PDFs > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L10.3 Comments on Conditional PDFs Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Comments on Conditional PDFs > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L10.4 Total Probability & Total Expectation Theorems Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Total Probability & Total Expectation Theorems > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L10.5 Independence Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independence > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L10.6 Stick-Breaking Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Stick-Breaking Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 16MB) L10.7 Independent Normals Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Independent Normals > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L10.8 Bayes Rule Variations Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Bayes Rule Variations > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L10.9 Mixed Bayes Rule Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Mixed Bayes Rule > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L10.10 Detection of a Binary Signal Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Detection of a Binary Signal > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 13MB) L10.11 Inference of the Bias of a Coin Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Inference of the Bias of a Coin > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) |
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Lecture 11: Derived Distributions | |
› View Lecture Videos L11.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L11.2 The PMF of a Function of a Discrete Random Variable Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The PMF of a Function of a Discrete Random Variable > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L11.3 A Linear Function of a Continuous Random Variable Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Linear Function of a Continuous Random Variable > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L11.4 A Linear Function of a Normal Random Variable Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Linear Function of a Normal Random Variable > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L11.5 The PDF of a General Function Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The PDF of a General Function > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L11.6 The Monotonic Case Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Monotonic Case > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 14MB) L11.7 The Intuition for the Monotonic Case Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Intuition for the Monotonic Case > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L11.8 A Nonmonotonic Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Nonmonotonic Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L11.9 The PDF of a Function of Multiple Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The PDF of a Function of Multiple Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) S11.1 Simulation Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Simulation > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 17MB) |
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Lecture 12: Sum of Independent R.V.s. Covariance and Correlation | |
› View Lecture Videos L12.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L12.2 The Sum of Independent Discrete Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Sum of Independent Discrete Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) L12.3 The Sum of Independent Continuous Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Sum of Independent Continuous Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L12.4 The Sum of Independent Normal Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Sum of Independent Normal Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L12.5 Covariance Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Covariance > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L12.6 Covariance Properties Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Covariance Properties > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L12.7 The Variance of the Sum of Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Variance of the Sum of Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 9MB) L12.8 The Correlation Coefficient Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Correlation Coefficient > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L12.9 Proof of Key Properties of the Correlation Coefficient Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Proof of Key Properties of the Correlation Coefficient > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L12.10 Interpreting the Correlation Coefficient Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Interpreting the Correlation Coefficient > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 12MB) L12.11 Correlations Matter Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Correlations Matter > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) |
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Lecture 13: Conditional Expectation & Variance Revisited; Sum of a Random Number of Independent R.V.s | |
› View Lecture Videos L13.1 Lecture Overview Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Lecture Overview > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 4MB) L13.2 Conditional Expectation as a Random Variable Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional Expectation as a Random Variable > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L13.3 The Law of Iterated Expectations Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Law of Iterated Expectations > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L13.4 Stick-Breaking Revisited Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Stick-Breaking Revisited > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L13.5 Forecast Revisions Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Forecast Revisions > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 6MB) L13.6 The Conditional Variance Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. The Conditional Variance > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 5MB) L13.7 Derivation of the Law of Total Variance Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Derivation of the Law of Total Variance > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) L13.8 A Simple Example Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. A Simple Example > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L13.9 Section Means and Variances Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Section Means and Variances > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 11MB) L13.10 Mean of the Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Mean of the Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 8MB) L13.11 Variance of the Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Variance of the Sum of a Random Number of Random Variables > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 7MB) S13.1 Conditional Expectation Properties Flash and JavaScript are required for this feature. Conditional Expectation Properties > Download from Internet Archive (MP4 - 10MB) |
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