Introduction to Statistics/Still confused?
< Introduction to StatisticsConsider a simpler situation involving a deck of two cards: the queen of spades and the two of spades. We'll define our joint probability again as "the chance of drawing a queen or a spade", and naively express it as.
We can draw a card from our two card deck. We are guaranteed to draw a spade, so . Our chance of drawing a queen is 1 in 2, or
. Let's add everything together.
or 150%. This obviously doesn't make sense.
If we use the correct definition of the probability for this event:
we get the answer we expect.
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