2.1 - Research and Development

In 2012 a conceptual design study for a program of Human Expansion beyond Earth was started, as part of the Space Systems Engineering book Space Transport and Engineering Methods. A key technology in making such a program affordable was identified as self-expanding production. By producing fuel en-route, and other supplies and hardware from local materials, it greatly reduces the mass and cost of what needs to come from Earth. Subsequently this author (Eder) realized that the same technology has value on Earth. It can be used to make outputs unrelated to space projects, as well as to build the space hardware and transport equipment to get to space. Experience gained in such manufacturing systems on Earth can later be applied to future space projects.

By early 2013 the study work had shifted to designing Earth versions of such Seed Factories first. Since the focus was now Earth industry, and many of the details were distinct from those for space systems design, it was decided to move the contents to a separate Wikibook, the one you are currently reading. Theoretical development of new ideas is a necessary first step, but the real value in such ideas comes from putting them to practical use. So we started the Seed Factory Project to eventually go beyond the book, and develop the actual software and hardware to demonstrate the technology. If good results are obtained from the prototypes, then the next step is building full working factories.

The work during 2013 mostly focused on designs for a sustainable community of several hundred people who can meet 85% of their physical needs from a mature Personal Factory and the products it makes. The remainder would be met from outside sources. 85% is seen as a reasonable goal for a first generation design. The current state of that work was documented in section 5.0 of this book, and the in-progress working notes are in section 9.0. The Seed Factory Project is intended as an open source collaboration to develop the technology. Anyone with relevant skills is invited to contribute to the design. Specific products or physical factories built from the technology would be privately owned.

In addition to the Personal Factory concept, we also identified three other examples of Seed Factory applications, with different end points once matured. These an Industrial Factory (section 6.0), distributed World Wide Factory (section 7.0), and installations in remote and difficult locations (section 8.0). Those are not as well developed as the Personal Factory design. By doing several different designs, we hoped to evolve general design principles and methods. It should also indicate how differing end goals affect the starter set, and what areas need more research and technical improvement.

Besides specific design examples, we are also started working on general design tools. One of these is a resource model and flow network. This traces inputs and outputs from outside sources, the various factory elements, and the end users for the products. This makes sure all resources are accounted for, and the factory equipment is properly sized. By treating the mature factory as part of the product outputs, you can then recursively work back to find a starter set that leads to the chosen end point. We expect to use conventional design and engineering methods along with any new ones like resource models that we develop in the project.

2014 was consumed by funding, locating, purchasing, and starting to set up an R&D site in the southwest Atlanta area. The property includes 2.67 acres and some existing buildings, which is enough to start work. If the project grows beyond that space, there are many industrial buildings and undeveloped land in the area. 2015 went largely to project planning, high level systems engineering, setting up an office, and organizing technical files. This led to a report on extending civilization beyond Earth, using seed factories as a key technology. A key result of that work is identifying a logical sequence of project phases starting with home/hobby scale production. Each phase can produce equipment for the next phase, leading to expansion throughout the Solar System if taken far enough. In 2016 we are incorporating that plan back into the two Wikibooks, with the earlier phases described in this book, and the later space-related ones in the other book. In parallel we continue to work towards a renovated workshop to build prototypes in, building a technical team, and working with other groups and projects.

Concept Status

The concept of Self-Replication in the modern sense was developed in the 1950's in terms of cell mechanisms in biology, mathematical processes in software, and mechanical devices in automation and robotics. That concept involved a system making a direct copy of itself, which was nearly or exactly the same as the original. It also involved the system doing so autonomously, without human intervention or outside supplies. The concept of self-expanding systems as described in this book treats self-replication as a special case of a more general category of systems that grow. In the general case, indirect copying is possible. This is where the original unit builds new items not present in the original, and later builds a copy of the original. Variation and evolution is possible in the general case. A second generation starter kit can be different than the first generation starter kit. A collection of different units can expand and evolve over time into something quite different. Finally, autonomous, or fully automated operation, is not a requirement in the general case, some human labor and outside supplies can be used.

The concept of a self-expanding system as we develop it in this book also includes some other ideas. In list form they include:

• Self-expanding systems grow by using part of their output of parts and materials internally. The remainder of their output can be used for other purposes, like useful products to be sold or delivered to the system's owners. The percentage of output devoted to internal growth can vary over time.

• Self-expanding systems can use a starter set designed to minimize the initial size and complexity, and maximize growth rate. Later growth can emphasize other features like efficiency.

• These systems can diversify by adding new and different equipment to the starter set. The added equipment allows new products and processes, which in turn can lead to further diversification.

• These systems can scale in size by making larger versions of existing equipment. An affordable starter set can thus scale to large scale industry.

• Such systems can reproduce any percentage of their own parts from zero to 100%. Whatever items can't be made internally are supplied from outside. Outputs the system produces can be traded for rare materials and hard to make items it cannot supply internally. The percentage of self-reproduction can vary over time.

• The systems can use any mix of human labor and automation from zero to 100%, and the mix can vary with time. High levels of automation are desirable for productivity, but they should be used when sensible and affordable. Extreme levels of automation are likely to be expensive and hard to design for. Labor can be hands-on, or by remote control.

• Self-expanding systems do not have to be at a single site. A single site makes some tasks easier, but modern communications and control systems can enable a distributed production network. Factories built entirely in one place become a design choice rather than an assumption or rule.

• Self-expanding systems can adopt modular and incremental design. Modules use regular spacing and simplified interfaces, so that changes can be made more easily. Increments mean you do not have to start with all the equipment, or even have them designed yet. Individual changes and upgrades can be made when needed.

• The systems can employ new design and operations tools to manage a complex and evolving system. This includes materials and energy resource accounting to balance flows within the system, and a factory process compiler to automate production plans in the face of a constantly changing layout.

Needed Research and Development

These last two sections list what technologies and questions still need more work, and a start at a technology development plan to address that work. More details will be found in the Project Organization section of the online workbook as it is developed. The current state of the concept allows us to start working on designs for particular purposes. However, there are still many unanswered questions about seed factories in general. A research plan is needed to answer the following questions, and probably others not yet identified:

Feasibility

• Is existing technology sufficient to meet desired goals of self-expansion, recycling, and automation?

-- If not, what new technology or improvements are needed?

Design

• What should be in a particular starter set, and in what order should new equipment be added?

-- How does the starter set and growth path depend on the scale and mature products of the mature system?

-- How does the starter set and growth path depend on the resources and environment at a particular location?

-- Is it better to use general purpose equipment with attachments vs. more specialized and dedicated units?

Growth

• What is the optimal path to increasing the percentage of self-production (closure) and automation?
• What is the fastest way to grow total factory capacity?
• What is the relationship among starter set complexity, physical scale, initial cost, and growth rates?

Economics

• In purely financial terms, how does it compare to conventional factories on capital and production costs?
• Does the seed factory approach better meet people's material needs than conventional specialized factories?
• How should production capacity be divided between internal maintenance and growth, outputs for the owners, and products for sale?

We do not think a single study or book can answer all these questions. A seed factory is a complex design involving multiple engineering fields. We invite others to bring their knowledge, experience, and creativity to bear on these questions and move the concept forward into the realm of practical application.

Technology Development Plan

We think the following series of tasks will contribute to answering the questions in the previous section. We also think any plan such as this will need extensive revision as more people work on the concept, develop new ideas, and a better understanding of what needs to be done:

Continue Conceptual Work

This includes the following component tasks:

• Identifying key parameters and formulas for self-expanding integrated factories, so that they can be modeled and optimized.
• Comparing the state of the art in automation, robotics, and other related fields to what is needed in this type of factory. This either establishes feasibility or defines areas for further research and development.
• Collecting designs and concepts developed by others outside this project, to see if they apply or can be adapted for use.
• Refine example applications in more detail to incorporate the self-expansion and other concepts identified above, verify they are feasible, and estimate their cost and economics.

Preliminary Design

This step takes the concept-level designs to sized and configured elements which are ready for final drawing preparation. For example, for a machine tool in the factory, a preliminary design level would specify the dimensions of the major parts, power level, accuracy, and provide layout drawings.

Component Research

Where new or modified technology is identified as necessary, this task includes developing the technology. It includes theoretical concepts, analytical design, and laboratory and component level testing. Once sufficiently well tested, the technology can then be added to the portfolio available for detail design and prototyping of full factory elements. Component level work can be done at any location as an open source collaboration.

Build Prototypes

This includes designing prototype elements, setting up production and test areas for them, and the actual manufacture and test of the prototypes. Small scale prototypes of the factory elements can be built at distributed locations. Eventually large scale prototypes or linking multiple factory processes into a complete system will require a dedicated fixed location. This is especially true of collecting renewable energy and growing organic materials, which requires significant land area. The project may work with other R&D institutions, non-profits, etc. which already have facilities, if that makes progress easier. Whatever knowledge and experience gained in the project would then be distributed for the benefit of people in general. More detailed steps include:

• Design Prototype Hardware
• Design Prototype Software
• Build Conventional Workshop
• Build Prototype Test Area
• Fabricate and Assemble Prototype Hardware
• Test Prototypes

Continuing Work

After an initial set of prototypes are developed, these can be spun off into a working factory project for real owners. Such a factory would demonstrate the complete system works as intended and satisfies the original design goals. Feedback from actual use would help in designing improvements and upgrades, and later generation versions.

The R&D work would continue in parallel with operational use, for several reasons. First, it is not likely an ideal design will be developed on the first try. Second, other locations and products besides the original ones will likely require modified designs and more testing. Third, technology in general does not stand still. Last, an initial set of hardware will not cover all the kinds of equipment that may be wanted. Continuing work would develop upgrades and new designs and feed them to factory projects when they are ready. Prototypes for different kinds of locations would either be built at those locations, or built at an existing facility and then delivered. Using the original set of prototypes to help build the later equipment can demonstrate the expansion capacity of the designs.